Amuli · 2026-07-12

Where Amuli is going

This is our working map for the next three years: what we build, in which order, and what evidence each step stands on. Statuses are honest — “planned” means planned, not promised.

Revenue trajectory

  1. 2026 — first paying subscribers; every scenario stays under a $5k cash reserve
  2. 2027 — $2–5k net MRR base case ($14k in the best case); cash-flow positive from spring
  3. 2028 — B2B2C pilots add a second revenue line on top of subscriptions
  4. 2029 — platform scale; the certification fork decides the ceiling
2026 · builtDone

Foundation: product exists

A working app and backend, verified end-to-end, under version control and quality gates.

Key results

  • ◆19-screen Android app: AI chat with full history, illness episodes, temperature curves, medications, vaccinations, documents with OCR, offline emergency screen
  • ◆Server-enforced freemium (5 AI questions/day free), disclaimer flow, signed release build
  • ◆This site: landing EN+UK, blog, account cabinet, admin panel

What this stands on

  • ▸Blue-ocean gap confirmed: symptom checkers (Ada, Buoy) have no memory of your child; baby trackers (Huckleberry, 5M+ families) have no medical AI

Founder’s part

  • ✦Done: product decisions, three code audits, industry-standards alignment (FHIR/WHO/CDC fields)
Jul–Aug 2026In progress

Production readiness + beta

Real sign-in, cloud infrastructure, payments, crash reporting — and 20–50 beta families before the store launch.

Key results

  • ◆Google Sign-In (Cognito), HTTPS production backend, push medication reminders
  • ◆Paywall live; freemium vs 7-day-trial A/B test running from day one of beta
  • ◆Closed beta: crash-free > 99%, onboarding-to-first-AI-answer under 2 minutes

What this stands on

  • ▸Freemium converts 2.1% of installs (median), hard paywall 10.7%, AI-app trials 8.5% — the trial test alone can multiply revenue (RevenueCat 2026)
  • ▸AI apps convert better but retain 36% worse over 12 months — the diary lock-in (records accumulate value) is our counter-move (RevenueCat 2025/26)

Founder’s part

  • ✦Open accounts: AWS (Cognito/infra), Firebase, Google Play Console ($25), domain
  • ✦Choose legal entity / tax setup before the first Google payout
  • ✦Back up the release keystore off this machine (losing it = losing the app on Play)
  • ✦Recruit 20–50 beta families from parent communities
Sep–Dec 2026Planned

Launch in Ukraine + hypothesis gates

Google Play launch, first paying subscribers, and two honest checkpoints that decide the 2027 plan.

Key results

  • ◆Staged rollout 10→50→100%, 30+ reviews at 4.5+, founder-story in parent communities and tech media
  • ◆Gate G1 (end of Oct): activation ≥ 50%, D7 ≥ 8%. Gate G2 (end of Dec): install→paid ≥ 1.5%, D30 ≥ 5%, share-loop k ≥ 0.1
  • ◆Pediatrician pilot: 5 doctors recommending the diary between visits

What this stands on

  • ▸Ukraine: ~3–3.5M in-country families with kids 0–12 + ~1.8M children in diaspora; Android holds 78–82% — Android-first is arithmetic, not preference (UNICEF 2026, Statcounter)
  • ▸Health-app D30 retention runs 3–8% on Android; paid installs in the US are unviable at our price (CAC $150+/payer) — organic-first is a mathematical necessity (Adjust, Business of Apps)
  • ▸Regional price tier for Ukraine (~₴149/mo) — Eastern Europe prices 20–40% below US (Adapty 2025)

Founder’s part

  • ✦~10 h/week: 2 SEO articles + 3 short videos weekly (SEO planted now pays in 2027 — 12–18-month lag)
  • ✦10 in-person pediatrician meetings; 10 user interviews per month
  • ✦Hold the gates honestly: if G2 fails — switch monetization to trial, pivot channel to clinics, or fix the product before spending another hryvnia on growth
H1 2027Planned

iOS, paid traffic, first real revenue

Reach the diaspora on iOS, harvest the SEO planted in 2026, and turn on paid acquisition only where the math works.

Key results

  • ◆iOS on the App Store (cloud CI); voice input and doctor-ready PDF export shipped
  • ◆Gate G3 (April): monthly churn ≤ 10% and MRR ≥ $1k → paid UA traffic starts, hard stop if CAC > LTV/3
  • ◆Target corridor: $2–5k net MRR (base scenario) by August 2027

What this stands on

  • ▸Consumer pediatric subscriptions at $16–20/mo exist and sell (Blueberry Pediatrics, Summer Health) — our $7 price has headroom, the diaspora pays EU/US prices
  • ▸Realistic LTV is $21–60 net per payer (market churn rates), so acquisition must stay under $7–20 per payer — only Ukraine-priced channels qualify

Founder’s part

  • ✦Apple Developer account ($99/yr); marketing budget from ~$500/mo once G3 passes
  • ✦Keep the content flywheel spinning — it is the cheapest channel we will ever have
H2 2027Decision gate

Family Hub: aging parents (go/no-go)

Same user — the 28–40 caretaker — now managing their parents’ health too. Framed honestly: a retention and expansion feature, not a new revenue pillar.

Key results

  • ◆Elderly profiles with different AI logic (chronic meds, interactions, appointments) — only if interviews confirm demand
  • ◆Family plan ($9/mo tier) covering children + parents

What this stands on

  • ▸54% of people in their 40s are “sandwiched” between kids and a 65+ parent (Pew 2022); caregiver-app market grows ~14–15%/yr
  • ▸Warning from the field: no pure consumer-subscription caregiver app has clearly succeeded — the segment monetizes through employers and insurers (CareZone sold to Walmart, Papa is B2B). Hence the go/no-go gate, not a promise

Founder’s part

  • ✦20 interviews with sandwich-generation users BEFORE any code is written
  • ✦Make the go/no-go call on evidence, not attachment to the idea
2028Planned

Clinics and partnerships (B2B2C)

Distribution through the most trusted channel there is: the doctor. Consumer apps in pediatrics scale through institutions — we follow the evidence.

Key results

  • ◆Doctor accounts: shared patient timelines (with parent consent), saving ~10 minutes per visit
  • ◆2–3 pilots with private networks — Ukraine’s realistic targets: Oxford Medical (51 clinics), Dobrobut (20+), Into-Sana (10)
  • ◆Insurance conversations: diary-keeping families as a lower-risk segment

What this stands on

  • ▸Blueberry Pediatrics grew through payer/employer contracts, not app-store ads; Kinsa built reach by giving hardware away but never a business — partnerships must carry their own revenue, not just installs
  • ▸Clinic white-label rev-share terms are opaque industry-wide — pilots are how we learn the real numbers

Founder’s part

  • ✦This phase is founder-sold: your meetings, your relationships with clinic owners
  • ✦Legal entity ready for B2B contracts; consider first part-time hire funded from MRR
2029Decision gate

Platform — and the certification decision

Medical memory for every family member. And the biggest strategic fork: whether to become a certified medical device.

Key results

  • ◆All profile types (children, adults, elderly, chronic conditions) with per-type AI logic
  • ◆Decision gate: active recommendations (e.g. dosing) require EU MDR Class IIa certification — enter only if recurring revenue clearly funds it

What this stands on

  • ▸MDR Rule 11 pushes decision-support software to Class IIa minimum; realistic cost €100–300k and 18–30 months incl. ISO 13485 QMS (Johner Institute, MedDeviceGuide 2026). Precedent: Ada Health certified Class IIa in Dec 2022
  • ▸Staying a “wellness diary + informational AI” keeps us outside MDR — one dosing feature triggers the full pathway. That line is drawn consciously
  • ▸Selling “anonymized” health data is not a revenue pillar: EDPB 2025 anonymization test is strict, and Flo Health’s $59.5M settlement shows the downside. Child data doubly so

Founder’s part

  • ✦Strategic call with real money attached: certification, external funding, or staying a wellness product at scale